#GREXIT And The #IRANDEAL

July seems to be so generous this year because in one week Greece saved its behind, Iran struck a deal with the “Greater Devil”, New horizons sent us live pictures of Pluto and Bastian Schweinsteiger became a red devil (this last piece of info can be a source of conflict though!).

If anything, the Greek and Iranian deals are purely business driven. Make no mistake, no party involved in any of both deals struck a “yes” purely because of goodwill or good citizenship. A Greek exit from the EU would have signaled the beginning of the union’s end and would have opened the door for other less convinced members to leave the group (Britain comes right on top of my head) and the domino would have rolled and although France and Germany seem somewhat eager to trim off the extra fat, deep down they knew that they had to keep Greece tucked in.  Perhaps the biggest catalyst for the Greek deal came from Russia; it was more than enough for President Putin to hint in one of his press conferences that a Greek exit meant more currency freedom for the country and meant that they were acquitted from all agricultural quota agreements with the EU to make all members eager to solve the situation. Last year’s EU’s sanctions against Russia have hurt both the EU’s and Russia’s economies and Putin might have seen in an independent Greece a possible ally especially that Russia lost important agricultural suppliers in Europe.

On the surface, one might think that Putin was dealt a hand, but the truth is that comrade Putin was a winner because he was smart enough not to slide in the Greek mud while successfully pushing the troubled EU further deep inside.

On the other hand, Putin’s real trophy was the Iranian nuclear deal; and I’m not talking in the political terms but rather in the economic terms. You see, Iran has tons of cash stacked in banks all over the world and years of sanctions have created a very thirsty economy that is ripe to use these funds in attracting investors and in investing heavily in the country. On the other hand, all the global economy is suffering and they are all in dire need for new markets and new money sources. These were the exact reasons that forced USA to restore diplomatic relationships and of course business with CUBA and they were also the reason here. Even France, the biggest ever opponent of the deal was the first country to announce that French companies might still get a chance to invest in Iran despite France’s official stand on the deal and French foreign minister Laurent Fabius has already announced that he will be visiting Iran next week (wait a minute dude, did you consult with your Israeli friends before taking such a hasty decision?). It’s very strange how the slight notion of money and profit can make one turn against their closest allies – just like the current situation of France and Israel.

But before everyone starts drooling over the Iranian pie, take a minute to remember that this is Iran – the country which until recently has been considered the heart of axis of evil and was named all sorts of names and remember that they are not known to be forgetful, so if anything then the biggest chunk will go to their staunch ally – yes you guessed it, it’s comrade Putin again. Russia has already announced that there will be deals that involve planes and if the sanctions are lifted then this will definitely mean both civilian and military planes. In addition, the country that has been for the longest time ever suffering from oil shortages will be able to fulfill its needs both in production and consumption with all the ramifications that will come from such a thing.

Iran might not really replace the EU in terms of trade size with Russia but Putin will definitely benefit the most especially that Iran has high agricultural production which Russia can definitely benefit of. On the other hand, Poor Obama has worn himself out to get that deal done and it so far seems that the Americans will not benefit financially whatsoever despite Obama’s relentless offers to market the deal in USA as a means to prevent war and promote peace, not unless Iran decides to lure them in even more.

A few years ago, Britain released the Lockerbie bomber who was Iranian; the official reason back then was humanitarian – the man was supposedly suffering from terminal cancer. The real reason though was to allow BP to strike a deal in Iran and that was what happened exactly. In 2015, the same is going to happen and nuclear Iran will be allowed to become so in return for financial benefits that the whole world desperately needs.

A lot can be said about diplomacy, about peace, about war and negotiations; a lot has been said about these in the last few weeks but the truth is it was all purely business; the country that until recently represented radicalism and extremism has become the world’s sweet heart and Israel which also until recently was Europe’s and America’s protégée has been shoved aside because it is not economically interesting anymore. For after all, and as one of my MBA finance professors used to frequently say: “It is not unethical, it is just business.”

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USA, Cuba and Russia, the Everlasting Threesome

“War and Economy: The All Time Best Friends” is a term that will always hold true no matter what era the world is living in nor what situation is occurring. Money, wealth and the need for more resources for cheaper costs have and will always propel the world, not necessarily forward but it definitely is a pushing force.
In 1962, the world held its breath as the standoff between the USSR and the USA nearly wiped off the modern world in a nuclear war; the star of the story back then was Cuba. Ruled by the communist hard liner Fidel Castro and euphoric from its previous success in fighting off the Americans in the Bay of Pigs incident, Cuba was considered a direct threat to the “communism paranoid” USA. As a communist regime, it was just normal that Castro would align with the USSR. As part of the ongoing political war between the USSR and the USA, the Russians tried to benefit from the situation by trying to deploy a set of nuclear missiles that would put Washington D.C. within their reach. After a few tense days, Russia agreed to remove those missiles and secretly the USA agreed to do the same by removing some missiles they had deployed in Turkey just at the borders of Russia.
In 1962 the 2 world superpowers were the USSR and the USA, the Castro’s were in power, President Kennedy was a democrat and both powers used Turkey and Cuba in their stand-off. In 2015, a democrat is in the white house, Putin who’s a former KGB (the offspring of the USSR) has been steering Russia since 1999, Cuba is still ruled by the Castro’s and the USA has used the NATO as a cover to redeploy a defensive missile system in Turkey. So the scene is still almost the same minus the Russian missiles in Cuba.
In an interesting twist of events, President Obama announced in the beginning of 2015 that USA was going to ease restrictions against Cuba and allow more trade exchanges with the isolated island. There are many reasons that can interpret such a move but only one reason is the most valid and it’s the economic one. The proof lies in the set of rules that allowed for exchanges and money transfers.
To begin with, the ailing US airlines can find a new travel line where they can actually make money and profits since they are losing on their own turf (the CEO of Delta Airlines recently went ballistic in his criticism of some Arabic airlines and claimed that that’s where the September 11 terrorists came from and that no Arabic airlines should come to the USA) and as Mexico becomes more and more of a dangerous place, Cuba can be the next ideal destination for spring breakers. The always suffering US car industry is thirsty to reenter a market it has lost more than 50 years ago. Images coming from Cuban streets show them bustling with good old American cars, question is will the Cuban consumers like what the new American car industry looks like?
In recent years the US economy has been coming under lots of pressure from outsourcing jobs, to foreign competition to a larger and alarming budget deficit – most of which is owed to communist China, another country aiming at being a superpower but with no luck yet. This explains why the USA is in dire need of finding new markets, but Russia is not standing and watching, they too want a piece of the Cuban pie. A recent report announced that the trade embargo imposed on Russia by the European Union has cost the old continent about 21 billion dollars in losses and although Russia has been so secretive about the effects on its economy but a weakening Ruble and a statement by Putin that the country needs 2 years to get out of this mess is a clear indication. In short, both countries need an escape plan.
So both economies are in trouble, and both are looking for new markets. The Middle East is already set ablaze, and although Africa is a promising market it is for now left for the Japanese and Chinese to feud over it. China and Japan in their turn are expected to have slower growth than what was initially estimated and India is still struggling to find its identity. Europe shot itself in the foot when they imposed the sanctions on Russia and Australia – as always – seems like a continent on a different galaxy (too much sun can have it effects if you know what I mean). This leaves very few options for the two giants and makes Cuba seem the most interesting of them all.
As USA tries to aggressively enter the Cuban market by easing business and travel restrictions to American citizens combined with more freedom of capital flow from and to the mysteriously romantic island, Russia is not willing at all to sit on the side bench and they have already set plans for Cuba. In recent years, the once communist nation has been opening up to globalism but not in the terms of allowing multinational companies in as much as it was by trying to compete on the international scene although they have not been a great success so far. Russian Automaker Avto Vaz is now a part of the Nissan-Renault conglomerate which has significant meaning for an automaker that has been one of the very few to survive the post soviet era and might now become a global player. On the telecom front, The Wall Street Journal ran an article late in 2012 about the Russian Telephone maker YOTA which was planning an aggressive entrance to the already crowded telephone industry. So far their presence has been limited and just recently they signed a deal to enter the Chinese market which is highly dominated by local makers. One should not forget that the makers of the Kalashnikov are one of the largest exporters of weapons. Although they are not major yet, those moves are significant signs as to where the country is planning to head to.
Perhaps the most significant indication is the recent news that Russia is in talks with a group of investors from Abu Dhabi to partner up in a $200 million dollar investment that includes the development of a major airport and might include later a seaport and a railway. This announcement has sent messages in all directions; first it was announced in a military trade exhibition signaling Russia’s aggressive strategy to earn a market share in an area that has been predominantly an American turf. The second is a loud message by the Russians that they are still at the center of action in whatever happens in Cuba, and the third and probably the strongest message of them all is that Russia is dealing with Arabic Countries as trade partners and allies rather than just customers as has been the custom before- something that Uncle Sam has not done before (remember in 2006 when Dubai Ports company was forced to drop a deal to manage some US ports terminals just for being an arab company? What is it that they say about Karma?)
In terms of politics, Putin has loudly announced many times that the missile system in Turkey and many countries of the Eastern European block are an act of aggression against his country, he has shown resilience and unwavering determination is Syria, was among the first highest ranking officials to visit Egypt after the presidential elections which brought an army general back to the presidency and has shown ice cold nerves in the recent Ukranian crisis and was able to hurt the already ailing European economy. Cuba will not be any different; there are no signs that the Russians are willing to give the country up no matter what. During the soviet era, they supported the country in billions of dollars and there is no reason for why they should stop now.
After all, just like the USA is surrounding them they have a great interest in returning the service to uncle Sam; the Cuban market is thirsty for investments, the democrats are still in the white house, the castro’s in Cuba, the communist ghost in the Kremlin and the missiles in Turkey. It is obvious that little has changed in the last 50 years or so……

Why Low Oil Prices are Bad for the Global Economy as Well

In 2 weeks I’m going to be in Lebanon for vacation and as I will stop by the gas stations to fill up my car, I will be paying almost the same price that I used to pay when I first graduated from university around 6 years ago. At nearly 25,000 Lebanese Pounds per 20 liters all the Lebanese will be raving about it and enjoying this Holiday season to the maximum ( yes they will forget all the economic, social, residential, and environmental issues, they will also forget the refugee spillover from the neighboring war-plagued Syria, they will forget that we are still without a president for almost 8 months now and that our parliament is aiming to outlive the parliament that was around during all the 15 years of civil war. Ironically enough most of the faces are still the same and yes I am talking about the parliament and not about a senior citizens residential compound)

Of course not only the Lebanese are the ones joyful about it; in fact they share the same feelings with more than half of the residents of the planet. Americans are planning more and more road trips and the demand for big SUVs is ramping up again, and the Europeans might have something to cheer them up and keep them warm this winter after fears of Russia cutting them from the oil supply as a result of the ongoing tension between Russia and well most of the world. But all this comes with a price tag and a hefty one also; just as the increasing prices have been hurting the economies so will the decreasing prices. OPEC is still insisting on keeping the production and supply levels on current levels although supply is far exceeding demand and thus challenging the free market theory that supply and demand will lead to a market balance. The reasons behind this decision are plenty but I am not going to delve into the politics of it right now but the fact is everyone is hurting from it.

Oil producing countries are going to face massive budget deficits with many of them starting to question for how long they will be able to sustain such low prices and still go on with their development plans. Europe seems to be heading towards another recession in which low oil prices will not be of much help (the PIGS are now PIIGS with Ireland joining the club) they should start looking for a different animal name soon and preferably a longer one it seems.

In USA seemingly it will have the worst effect. The country that started the global economic crisis in 2008 might as well be leading the world into another one and if USA sneezes, Europe gets the flu. Right after the crisis, a massive effort was put into creating a more efficient economy that is not as much relying on oil as before and as a result a wide variety of fuel economic cars started to take more place on the roads instead of the traditional much larger gas guzzling V8s, the Prius which was literally the laughing stock of every movie and every comedian started to have its last laugh against all the skeptics. Green energy was strongly supported and subsidized and the glass panels industry witnessed a great boom. Now the lower oil prices have halted all this with the people reacting very fast to the low oil prices and ordering big trucks again and the still expensive alternative energy sources are being ditched in favor of traditional energy sources. What is even more, GM has announced its plans to lay off some workers from its Lake Oreon plan starting January 2015 and the reason cited is simply due to decreased demand on its economical cars the Buick Verano and the Chevrolet Sonic and I am guessing it won’t be long before the other carmakers will follow lead. Such is how much shortlived is the people’s memory and that’s how quickly they go back to old habits. Am I the only one seeing a “cash for clunkers” campaign looming in the Horizon once more?

Fiat was gambling on its tiny 500 model to conquer the streets of USA, Smart America was hoping that this would be its revival point and VW group were betting that their fuel economical tiny cars will help them dethrone BMW and Daimler as the kings of European cars in the USA. Alas, all those dreams might be going with the wind now.

In Lebanon, we party all the time; in the middle of the Israeli invasion on us we were partying, in the peak of the global crisis we were partying and now we are partying. In fact we don’t need a reason to party, we just need…… a place! But this time we have a reason and it’s the oil crisis. While countries have been bracing for the damages that the oil prices will cause to their economies, we are planning where to spend New Year’s Eve! I just hope that the economy does not sour so much that I lose my job and miss the chance of enjoying the low gas prices!

Lessons from History: ISIS of our Days, is Taliban of the Last Century

“History repeats itself” one of the most controversial sayings out there that has lead to many debates and to lots of digging in our history just to prove it right or wrong. Whether it is true or not is a debate that will go on forever, but for now I will focus on an incident that is alarmingly similar to a historic predecessor and maybe, just maybe it will support the believers of that saying.

The whole world seems to be consumed and shocked with the uprise of ISIS and claiming that its ways and its brutality were never seen before. I beg to differ; for as brutal and unusual their acts might seem, they are not new because some 35 years ago a predecessor movement called “Taliban” emerged in Afghanistan and tried to implement the same plan that ISIS is trying to implement now in the Middle East. Not only their goals are similar, but how they came to power, how they were created, what was their role, and what they did are almost typical as if they were exact twins.

A few days ago, I came across a documentary that was once aired on The History Channel titled “The Taliban Declassified” and the similarity between Taliban as depicted in the documentary and ISIS is so striking that at one point you just can’t tell who’s who.

Here’s why I find both guerrillas to be of the exact genetic pool:

  • To begin with, little is known about the background and history of Mullah Omar, the leader of Taliban; even less is known about Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS which strikes me as very odd since we are in the era where nothing can be hidden from the internet (you might want to check the facebook pictures from your “latest event” to verify my sayings) – Many rumors link both man to secret services.
  • Pakistani secret services are believed to be the creators of Taliban – in the case of ISIS, there are many “Godfathers” who fit that profile. Maybe someday we will know the true father.
  • Back in the 80’s Mujahidin flocked from all over the world to support Taliban because they believed that it was there to implement what they viewed as the true Islamic teachings – in 2014 a main export item should be added to Europe’s GDP because they are the biggest exporters of fighters going to Syria to join ISIS.
  • ISIS performs flogging, crossing, beheading, stoning and takes extreme measures to perform their view of Shari’aa. They banned music, forced men to grow their beards, imposed the religious police, put the 5 prayers a day law into effect, they also forced women to be fully veiled, and banned them from driving cars. Moreover, they changed school books and the teaching curriculum, punished men who were caught eating during Ramadan fasting days. They are convinced that the whole world is fighting Islam and it is their job to protect it. A quick look into Taliban’s history and dogma shows that they were exactly the same, albeit ISIS seems to believe more in sexual freedom because they believe that a cow’s boobs are sexually provocative and should be covered – all of you heartless people who accused them of being sexually intolerant should rethink your accusations after this piece of information!
  • On October 21st 2014, and as US air force fighters were dropping military support to Kurdish Guerilla fighters defending Kobani they “mistakenly” dropped some supplies inside ISIS controlled territory. Of course the official account from US officials was that it was made by mistake but given all the technology and GPS systems makes it hard to believe such a “mistake”. What adds to my doubt is a piece in the documentary where US ambassador Peter Tomsen who was at one point a US special envoy to Afghanistan between 1989-1992 says, and I quote his exact words: “while the Soviet Military was still in Afghanistan there was every reason for the United States to continue supporting the Pakistani approach of providing the extremists with the greatest bulk of American weaponry. However after the soviets moved out in February of 1989 we should have readjusted our policy and provided weapons to all groups not only the extremists but the moderates and other groups in Afghanistan.” Perhaps this time the Americans have learned from their previous mistake and this is why they dropped the supplies “by no mistake”
  • ISIS does not tolerate any other military faction next to it and this is why we see them fighting with Al-Nusra most of the time. Back in the days, Taliban also eliminated all competition to reign on the Afghani scene.
  • There were always indirect talks between the USA and Taliban through many channels since after all they were their “Godfathers”. Mrs. Clinton admits in her memoirs that ISIS also is the offspring of American secret intelligence but it probably is a more refined version of Taliban. They probably sat down and learnt from all the mistakes committed in the Taliban era and tried to avoid them this time with ISIS. I believe it is safe to say that there will be no September 11 this time.
  • Taliban was created for the sole reason of fighting the Soviet Union back then; both the USSR and USA led a proxy fight on Afghani territory with little attention to the real needs of the Afghani people. Both were looking into increasing their territories, have access to more resources and in cheaper ways and stop the other side from doing so. The whole war in the region today is to try to cut off Russia’s access to the Mediterranean and also to try to find cheaper ways to get oil and gas to Europe in an attempt to break Russia’s monopoly.
  • In 1985 and in the height of the fight between Russia and Taliban, an unexplained surge in oil production made a downward push on the prices. This initiative was lead by Saudi Arabia and it hit right in the heart of Russia’s economy. Today oil prices are at an all time low and have hit lows never seen before ( I still can’t believe that gasoline prices are down to just $20 / 20 liters in Lebanon, it definitely must be a dream!) Saudi Arabia has reiterated many times that they have no plans to cut production which means prices are not going to go up again anytime soon – Another hit to the Russian and Iranian economy this time.
  • Just as Taliban became out of control, the USA eliminated it and Mulla Omar just disappeared into thin air – Just as ISIS became a threat to Kurdistan (USA’s protégée) the USA stepped in and hit ISIS with airstrikes to stop its march towards that state.

What I find to be extremely interesting is how accurate and effective where the hits performed by the US airforce against ISIS when they were threatening Kurdistan and how much less effective they became when ISIS was marching towards Kobani.

USA, Russia, oil seem the theme words of this decade just as they have been since the 50’s of the last century. This here is another model of the ongoing economic fight between the 2 global superpowers; they still lead their proxy wars on territories that aren’t theirs in the first place, innocent casualties still die and along the way they are creating more and more beasts. The question is how long will the life span of ISIS be this time? We surely hope it will be short because we are getting tired and frustrated of it.

ISIS as an Economic Threat

In the popular US Tv show called “The Mentalist” there’s a serial killer called “Red John” who’s famous for marking his crime scenes  with a red smiley face but that’s not what we’re here to talk about; a few days ago the Christian Minorities in Mosul, Iraq woke up to find their front doors marked in red. Ironically the red marking on the houses was the letter “”ن which is the Arabic letter for N which stands for Nazareens – the naming that ISIS members give to Christians in the region. Put that letter in a circle and it will somewhat look like our fellow’s funny face. Christians were not the only ones marked for death in Mosul, the Shiites in that region and other minorities faced the same fate.

Ever since ISIS’s star started to shine amidst the Syrian revolution they have been in a rapid expansion. Of all the so called “opposition” factions (they are referred to as “so called” because we have lost count of how many of them are there now) ISIS seemed to be the most organized add to that they are the most brutal and the most feared amongst all the guerrillas there. And unlike the others, they seemed to have a vision, mission and mostly a strategy; they targeted key points in the Syrian landscape, forged for resources and mostly spread fear with their brutal and beyond the extreme methods. Their tactical strategies helped them attain keypoints in the Syrian landscape including oil refineries – a strategic resource in any war.

After a series of setbacks in Syria they shifted their strategy to Iraq; a location where they had more fertile soil due to the policies of the ruling regime and as a result of years of sectarian tensions and just like the US invasion to Baghdad in 2003, Mosul fell in their hands with no resistance at all. The bounty was massive and it ranged from piles of cash money in banks to a huge supply of very advanced US weapons that were proctored to the Iraqi Army (or should I call this army Casper since it keeps disappearing?) that astonishingly vanished into thin air when word of the invasion came in. some statistics put their current fortune at $2 billion dollars – try to let this sink in for a moment!

After securing territory in Iraq and starting to perform their regular “cleansing” techniques in order to clean out all opposition and spread fear, they shifted towards Lebanon in a short stint where they tried to take over a border town in the farthest Northern Bekaa point with the Syrian borders. Their invasion lasted only a few days where they were forced to retreat back into Syria since they were not able to face the Lebanese army. But had they managed to conquer the town “A’arsal” and spread inside Lebanon their main target would have been the water resources for that country in addition to its seaports on the Mediterranean – an important focal point to help them have access to Europe. They previously tried to do so in Syria but back then Russia proved to them and to the whole world for that matter that they are willing to go to a world war but not let Syria or most specifically the Syrian shores fall in the hands of any opposing faction. Not to mention that in the last 2 years there have been important information and findings about massive amounts of oil in Lebanon mostly off of its shores.

So what will happen here is that the combined reserves of those 3 countries will exceed those of the current second biggest oil producer globally and the largest producer regionally which Saudi Arabia, they will also have access to the Mediterranean Sea through the Lebanese and Syrian shores which will give them ease of access to Europe and to USA. Having oil and gas as key commodities might represent Europe’s opportunity to get out of Russia’s grip and they can use the water resources to trade with the water thirsty gulf nations.

Forget about religion, minorities, women, children, senior citizens and human rights for that matter and focus on dollars here because this is the key point and it is another proof that war is the key for propelling economy forward. European Countries and the USA have no shame at all when dealing with blood diamond coming from the civil war–plagued-African continent nor they have any problem doing business with many of the tyrant regimes there so why should it be any different in this case? Tomorrow they will claim that ISIS prevailed because people allowed it to and that they are loved and popular in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. They will forget all the displaced people, they murdered victims and that atrocities committed and say that since this is what the people there want, we don’t have any problem in acknowledging that state and having diplomatic and business relationships with them.  But it is Saudi Arabia who has to be scared from that and the kingdom should go all-in to face this threat. At almost 10 million barrels a day, the oil rich kingdom’s economy revolves around that commodity only; take that from them and their economy will instantly collapse since all other economical sector are not as significant. Saudi Arabia should not under any circumstance accept that all those reserves fall in the hands of 1 regime that has proven over and over again that they have no ethical boundaries in what they do. They will lose a major European market, will be forced to lower their prices and maybe lose a competitive advantage against the USA

In short, ISIS is not a threat to Christianity or any other religious groups as much as it is a threat to oil rich countries. Building an empire on such a stretch will give them the upper hand and will surely make it easier for oil thirsty nations to go to one source instead of searching in many places. ISIS has shown over and over again that they have no interest in fighting with the Israeli regime – a fact that will make USA comfortable and it will encourage them more and more to go deeper in business with ISIS as long as they keep their little ally on the Mediterranean alone.

In the recent days, ISIS brutality in Iraq reached new heights with them emptying Mosul from all its Christians not to mention the casualties and then they moved to surrounding the Azydian minorities located in the Sinjar mountain area. Slaughtering 500 innocent and defenseless civilians sent a resounding message to the whole world; yet it was only when ISIS reached the borders of Kurdistan and threatened “US interests” in IRAQ that Mr. Obama ordered airstrikes against them. Yet another proof that the world is not moved by humanity but by money and interests. The airstrikes proved successful and ISIS was not able to reach Erbil although they managed to spread fear in the whole state and caused millions of dollars in economic losses. We still have to find out yet whether those airstrikes will be continued to totally destroy ISIS or they were just meant to draw borderlines for them.

As I was finishing that blog, I got a flash news that the UN council has voted to cut off all financial support to ISIS and Al Nusra, wait, what? Come again? Is this a confession? Are they admitting that they were the ones that created that monster? If the UN was designed to protect the world from agressors, tyrants, crazy dictators and war criminals well then who is going to protect the UN from itself?

I strongly believe that human nature is mostly controlled by 2 factors: greed and fear and it seems that ISIS greed has shown how far they can go. They seem to be confident about the success of their plan and their clients are already there. Rumor has it that Secretary of the State Hilary Clinton admits in her new memoirs “Hard Choices” that the USA is behind the creation of ISIS to fulfill exactly the purposes stated above; one small advice to the creators of Taliban and Al Qaeda in the 80’s “what goes around, comes around” maybe you would like to ask your troops in Afghanistan about that.

What if Russia Closed the Valve?

History is loaded with lessons of past events that are so similar to current issues, it is  also loaded with examples that should teach us to be wiser in dealing with those current issues based on the mistakes and decisions of those who were there before us. And in the case of the current Russian-Ukranian standoff and how the rest of the world is dealing with it, past lessons are not so old and it should not be difficult for us to remember them and learn the moral from the story. In WWII, Nazi Germany crawled as fast as it could towards Russia and got to Stalingrad. Hitler’s orders to his troops were get Stalingrad or die. The Russians, with their ice cold patience waited and waited until winter came; the Germans froze and the rest is now history. If there is a lesson to be learnt from this story is that the Russians are patient beyond imagination and an attrition war against them will surely be lost. Imagine President Putin sitting in a room full of valves that control the gas flow from Russia to the rest of the world and imagine that he decides to close that valve that goes to Europe, what will happen to the continent that relies on Russia for more than 30% on average of its gas consumption necessary to warm that continent up? They can revert to Alcohol to stay heated but then again, where does most of the world’s vodka come from? They can’t rely on Whiskey because Dubai is already gulping the biggest quantities of that drink and I am sure that most of Europe can’t compete with that city’s purchasing power so back again to that vicious cycle and again Putin is controlling more valves.

Wars are never fought for causes whether righteous or not, wars are strictly fought for economic reasons (https://gajreige.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/war-and-economy-the-all-time-best-friends/) no country is willing to invade another country and waste billions of dollars on just “humane basis” nor is a country willing to defend another one for the same reasons. Take the Syrian war for example, early on Qatar supported the uprising and rooted for it in all possible ways and the claim was to support the rights of Syrian people but the real agenda is totally somewhere else. Sitting on some of the world’s largest natural gas wells, Qatar is the third globally in LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports lagging behind Norway and Russia, but the tiny country has ambitious dreams to oust Russia from its throne as Europe’s number 1 supplier and continue its march towards the continent after already establishing a stronghold both athletically and economically. But alas! Geography stands between dreams and reality. Being so far from Europe, Qatar can’t compete with Russia since liquefying gas and mounting it to vessels and shipping it half-way around the globe is a very expensive process that Russia has countered through its extensive pipeline chain in the continent. So what Qatar needs is an exit on the Mediterranean or an access to Europe through pipes; Russia’s close alliance with Syria was standing between Qatar and its access to a Mediterranean seaport where it could send the gas through pipes either to a Mediterranean seaport and have it liquefied and loaded on ships for a very short trip to the nearby European continent thus slashing a lot of the costs or even better yet go through Syria and then into Turkey and to the rest of Europe from there with its pipelines and in this way they would be breaking the Russian monopoly. If you take this into consideration, you will understand why Russia is defending Syria so dearly and why all the recent tension between them and Ukraine, the country through which also lots of the Russian gas goes to Europe.

A few days after the crisis started, European Union countries threatened to sever their economic ties with Russia; the continent that still has not recovered from the economic crisis may have rushed into a hasty decision. The first hint came from the Germans which stated just a few days ago that the rest of Europe might actually be the one hurt and not Russia because “we are pushing Russia more and more to rely on China” which will be a strong hit to the already suffering continent. Keep in mind that this statement came from the strongest economy in the Eurozone, so if Germany is saying that what do you think will the situation be in the rest of the PIGS? Here’s a hint, last spring I contacted a certain Spanish supplier in order to explore the possibility of importing some Broccoli and iceberg containers for the company I work for; in the first and also last phone call, the sales agent that took my call simply answered me “currently Russia’s demand for those 2 items is so strong that we are barely keeping up with the demand of our customers there and we can’t afford to start new business” she didn’t even care what was the quantity I needed or if she could have possibly made more profit on my orders rather than Russia’s orders. This year, and if the union goes through with their decision, I have a strong feeling that she will be contacting me and offering me the goods.

US stocks fumbled on the same news also as USA threatened to take a similar stance to its neighbors, Russia was fast to counter and pulled out a massive amount of cash that it has traditionally deposited in the federal reserve’s vaults and this sent massive shock waves in the US economy and this is just the tip of the iceberg. If the USA decides to further pursue this strategy, then the Chinese-Russian allegiance will get even tighter which will tighten the grip on the American neck that is already under the mercy of the Chinese economy (the balance of payments is way tipping off in China’s favor you might even think it’s broken)

A few years ago – in 2009 to be exact – A Russian Ukranian standoff led to Russia closing its gas valves and prices went sky high and further hurt the ailing continent. It is almost spring now and the Europeans might not need to keep warm but the coming winter is right behind the door and just like in WWII’s Stalingrad, the Russian polar bear has enough cold nerves to wait and wait and strike back when the time is right. Bear in mind that the man on top of Russia’s political pyramid was performing war tactics and perfecting his chess abilities when the rest of the current world’s leaders now were rocking it out to Beatle’s concerts or in the case of Mr. Obama getting high on Marijuana – he might be an old bear that’s true but with age comes wisdom and in this case lots and lots of wisdom.